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Thursday, October 28, 2010
The Player With 9 Lives!
That is about all I can say right now after first watching last night's show and secondly trying to figure it all out. As I was watching the strategy talks going down. Firstly it didn't make much sense at first. I thought it's obvious that this strategy is not that strong a strategy. Or to me on surface it wasn't at first viewing.
However this strategy reveals something to me on two possible angles.
1st Could it be that maybe Marty has somehow made his way into a trust alliance with Sash?
It's probable. I mean just think Sash set the terms and not Bren. It may have started out as Bren's dirty work; however I am playing with an angle that perhaps Sash realizes he cannot beat Bren but may can beat Marty. Plus I do think for the most part he has become Bren's soldier. You cannot win the game of Survivor by being someone's soldier.
Maybe Sash may be striking out on his own as remember he did make that Freudien Slip. I think there is more honesty in that Slip than anything as it came on the tail end of Jud (FABIO???!!!) mentioning that WE have the idol now. Nope it is more like SASH Has the idol now! Looking at Sash's game style he does come across as pretty cunning. Probably cunning enough to make an improbable strategy even work. I would never have fallen for it myself if it were me. But stranger things have happened and I am beginning to think there has got to be more to this than meets the direct eye. To me someone is playing some Survivor chess and there may even be some bluffing going on at this gambling table. Twice The Gambler has tested the odds and twice The Gambler has stayed in the game. So either they are seriously playing with Marty or who knows, maybe Marty has found an in and at merge at that! Congrats for making it to merge Marty!
2nd Or could it be they are toying with Marty and just don't see him as that big a threat sans idol?
I love Marty. But he has no numbers. He is playing on guts of steel in a social game with no net. Taking it one ladder rung at a time. Marty has never really been a challenge demon. Separating him from someone who is solid loyal to him. Who can compete in challenges. That is pure Survivor strategy to do that. By separating them, this makes Marty very vulnerable. It basically ties his hands. His only remote way would be to take a gamble. See if it pays off and maybe get it back or give it to Jeff and it's played.
Either way Marty has few options at the moment and no numbers. It didn't make much sense either way at first to me. As I thought to myself why would a: Sash ask for the idol and expect the idol to actually be handed over? B; Why would Marty even take such a risky shot that given the odds may not pay off even? Idols are security and he just basically handed his idol to not only the other side but namely Sash, their most cunning player? If a is not the case, then it is quite possible that Marty can say he is up there with JT and with Erik in the bonehead dept. By doing so he has pretty much weakened himself. However with the merge you never know....Marty is a player who knows how to skim the path on his butt and improbable or not, it has worked for him. Tho I gotta say strategically I would not even attempt such a move. If the odds were with me sure. But this is way too uncomfortable for my tastes strategically as u have very little breathing space game wise.
The more I see of Bren, the more I think of her as being highly manipulative. This girl wants what she wants and bygawdangit she gets it! Her game tho strong, has a drawback. She sets it up but expects others to get their hands dirty for her. Whereas in a social game doing this would make her appear less dirty, it also is a two edged sword in that she gives away the actual power. If say a is the case, she may well have given the idol to Sash and setup an alliance that could come back to haunt her. Plus this is the 2nd time she has walked away from outright owning an idol and security. The first being Nay. Loyalty and "trust" can be a wonderful thing. But we are talking Survivor here.
Plus it is too close to individual games and merge to not own your own strategy and get it for you. I think Bren needs to start getting her hands dirty just a bit and not allow others to take on the power for her. I am thinking by trusting Sash she could be writing her own exit. As I stated earlier today, Sash has to know that he could never beat Bren in the Finals. As a result and a reason to explain the slip, Sash could be changing his game up now. Hesitance to own your entire game can be a costly decision. Speaking of this topic....
Jill was sadly the person who was selected to go in the end. What is sad though is Jill is the one who solved the clue in the first place to get the idol. At the time she thought it was good strategy to share the clue and gain Marty's trust and possibly earn tribal trust by sharing the fact that the idol was found and owned. But just like stated with Bren, an idol is just too important an item to share. When you hand someone something this important, you are taking a huge risk. Again loyalty and trust are great, but did the idol save Jill?
Jill throughout the game also seemed to allow Marty to make the riskier moves. She also appeared early to even just be someone to go along with Marty's strategies. I truly felt Jill had the tools to place deep in the game. She was competitive. She had some wit about her. But in the end a combination of not bringing Jane in, a tribal switch and one very hell bent loyal La Flor bit her in the butt.
It's probable if she wanted to change things up at some point that she could have spared her game. But I am thinking Jane would not have taken a shot due to the beginning of the game. Plus I think where she was concerned La Flor closed ranks. She was just competitively too strong. Plus I see some avenging old wounds in Jane's case. Plus Jane I am sure doesn't want to have a shot at being less important. Right now Jane is important, as opposed to early Espada.
By things staying the way they are, Jill-less, Jane can go deeper in and La Flor doesn't have to sweat a competitor who may could turn the tables on them at merge. But then again as stated earlier Sash and where he stands in all honesty will prove an interesting factor in the next few weeks of watching. It may just get ugly.
Espada!!! Talk about one strong tribe! All along people gave Espada heck and said they are gonna fall apart but watching the challenges..this is one cohesive tribe. They communicated well.
As opposed to La Flor who were like TNT and working against each other. Espada just keeps plugging and is now on a roll!
Social wise tho. I see Chase as feeling his way about still. His loss of his father seems to weigh heavy on him as he has mentioned it twice. I am thinking this experience is maturing him and quite possible is leading him to wish his father were here to see it.
Familial relations seems to be foremost as Holly mentioned that both Chase and Alina are bonding into the mesh and bonding within the tribe as if part of a family unit. Which says to me that Holly too misses her family. Perhaps so her daughters Liz and Alex. As in the one moment when Holly stood up to embrace Alina, plus that small interaction, to me, cements the Mama Holly role in the tribe. Maybe Holly has more power than we are seeing and is such a nurturing presence (ala Tina Wesson) that people respond to her and will listen to her. I am not at all seeing Holly as weak anymore but pretty strong and a camp presence.
Whether she is my friend or not is one thing, but calling it like I see it is foremost. Recall how Tina used this same exact strategy and personality to bond her to her tribe and note how well it worked? Colby took her to the Finals and she won! Who knows? Perhaps there is a hidden ally who may just do the same thing. Holly could well make the Finals. She also could well win. Simply by being a solid presence. No more and no less. In a game like Survivor keeping comforting energy around is a given. But it could also make Holly a social threat simply by being so lovable! But what I have seen so far gives me confidence in Holly. I can almost see her as being aligned maybe with Chase and Alina, perhaps even Nay which could work for her to go deeper in. Plus I can almost visualize a post merge alliance with Chase-Bren-Alina-Jane. We shall see.
Hilarious moment: Jud actually did it! Oh my gosh!!! It was hilarious. Jud reminds me so much of Dan. Both seem to flow whatever direction the winds is blowing and change things up a lot. They are both followers. They also have their very human and funny moments. But oh my gosh he actually peed! He is showing more smarts tho. Perhaps Marty rubbed off on him?
Kelly Purple spoke! But it was nervous chatter. I kind of like the quieter one. Too chit chattery. She is a cutie tho!
Plus Jane! She is so lovable! She reminds me a lot of Sandy Burgin as she has this no nonsense way about her. She has had some struggles and experiences i n her life. But she has used them as building blocks. Bu t just looking at her taking the game by storm. Catching then gutting and cooking her own fish dawgonnit! Plus watching her social game. I think Jane is doing okay. Plus she is not stepping down from Marty and is rearing up for a challenge there. I love a good character player and Jane is definitely entertaining.
NaOnka my goodness! I am now thinking she is getting comfortable again and her game face is putting itself back in play. Turns out Alina is very much on her hit list. I am now wondering why is it Nay is so threatened by Alina? To hear Nay talk she has Alina pegged as being on par with Bren! But if so, why was Alina ever really on the outs with La Flor? Did perhaps something Alina may have said or done threaten Nay which allowed Nay to get into people's minds that Alina needs to go??
If so look out Alina as it looks like Nay means business. However i don't see Alina as alone anymore and she may actually have that last laugh come merge. Seeing Nay's rather covert activity and game reactions tells me these two will collide soon. But for the moment I am not worried about Alina. Nay tho does look like she is back to being Crazy Nay tho. That actually is pretty entertaining though. Though in the game it could be pretty risky tossing food out and acting extremes.
Looking forward to more again next week as merge episodes are pretty freaking cool! So many possibilities and who knows? What seems improbable now can be probable! Until next week, keep your torch lights lit and enjoy!
I welcome all thoughts so please feel free to comment and often.
Some discussion Questions to ponder and respond to are:
1. Who do u see as holding power come merge?
2. Handing the idol over...good choice or dumb?
3. Do u think Jill could have at some point changed her game up or do u think early game decisions sealed her fate?
4. Who do u think will possibly align post merge and who do u feel will be targeted?
5. What chances right now do u see for Marty or do u feel his fate is sealed?