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Wednesday, May 11, 2011
With the finale fast approaching and what appears to be some heat starting up at camp; the main thought I would like to explore now is: does Boston Rob really have it in the bag?
Until today I admit I was of the masses who believed he did based on the fact that it appeared he has everyone solidly with him. This entire season has been tooooooo predictable.
But today I got to thinking and it occurred to me..man this is just too easy a conclusion. As I got to thinking I came to some different aspects that could factor in and cause us to look at other possibilities that may end with a different result other than the predictable Boston Rob win.
I will explore a couple of those now. Whether they will happen tonight or during the finale show is debatable or even probable. But they are things to think about and explore.
How much will Redemption Island Be A Factor?
Redemption Island is a part of this season and could well play a role in the ending result because of these probabilities:
1.The possibility that the RI winner when he or she returns may go on a Immunity winning spree and therefore not be an option for the vote.
(many are predicting it will be Matt based on the spiritual feel of the season and his strength when it comes to the duels as he made it through each one since it's inception)
a. If this were to be the case..say it is Matt. Matt has built relationships with several Zapateras while on RI. He also has a relationship with Andrea who probably feels burned by the O's due to her blindside.
Case in point Julie expressed how he had been an example to her out there through his faith and that she would consider finding a Church once she returned home. Mike and Ralph also seem to like and have a relationship with Matt also.
Also in Matt's favor is his relationship with Andrea. Who knows she may look at her options and decide she'd rather have Matt if say he were against Natalie and Phillip in the Finals. Remember she was blindsided and may still hold a grudge for that reason. The Final Tribal Voting in essentially a social vote more so than anything and if the probability came down to the RI winner being there at the end..and say it were Matt...his relationships with the Zapateras are a lot more solid than any of his other tribe mates from the O's. Plus factor in Andrea as well.
Of the other two F3 probabilities: Phillip ticked a lot of people off during the game and annoyed people. I don't think he will get a vote.
Natalie to me seemed very quiet and wasn't played up much (other than being tied to Rob securely) for me to base any opinion on her chances with them. But I am gonna assume she doesn't have strong bonds. A lot of that is due to Rob's keeping the tribes separate. If she were to get any votes it would be from an O.
His Past May Count Against Rob
Let's say you are playing for a million dollars in a game that is rarely played fair and square. One of the players on your tribe is pretty knowledgeable. He is hard working and comes up with smart ideas for strategies and the tribe itself mostly. You look up to him and idolize maybe a bit. But....idolizing or not..you keep him around until you decide it's time for a move and then the ultimate blindside. Why so? You are focused yourself on the million dollars. Rob has already played Survivor 3 times and this is his fourth time around. He has also played in The Amazing Race and had a reality show with Amber. He has carried you on his back the whole way and now it's time to make a move. He is known from his past also to be cut throat.
His past may be used against him. Why would you want to reward someone who has played before and obviously isn't hurting for the money? That's a factor.
Tribe Tension and an Idol
Tonight the tribe is gonna press Rob for their shot at the mil. Rob has stated he wants to take Natalie and Phillip. But there are others who assume they are also going to the end as well with Rob. So things are gonna start to heat up a bit.
Plus let's not forget Phillip according to the preview starts an argument amongst the girls and himself. Which may or may not be a plan to oust Natalie out of favor or even Ashley. Who knows with Phillip? But somewhere in the mix Rob will end up playing his Immunity Idol. While the tribe is jockeying for a position at the end.
If a tribe is already at tension level due to the jockeying for sides and the in tribe tensions. Should they realize Rob has held out the entire time on telling them about the idol..it could further inflame tensions and cause even more distrust. He hasn't been straight with us so he's gone.
Then add to by then a factor of a possible Immunity Winning Spree by Matt/RI Winner and the fact they have to eat again one of their own. I can see the rest deciding to blindside Rob in order to guarantee their spots securely and change things up. I am almost seeing Phillip as being the ringleader of it all.
Then should Matt continue his spree I can see Natalie and Phillip making a pact with Matt. I then see the relationships Matt has built with the Zaps factoring in and a Samoa rerun of why Natalie won...she had relationships. She was likable.
If he makes F3 Matt could well win this.
Plus also figure in that the Zap's respect Matt by this point for having survived RI the length of time he did and that he has won their respect. He may well garner the majority of the votes due to that fact.
Now all of the above are just possibilities....as anything can happen tonight and on Sunday. Rob does not have it sewn up yet. The truth be told Survivor is a psychologically based game but it is also a socially based game more so. So the final vote whether people admit it or not does carry more of because I like them more impact than anything.
Maybe Matt may pull this off after all?
Now to some fun...thanks to Rob Beasley and Survivor Seasons below is a photo made of all of the cast (but one) Try and see how many cast members can you find and name. Have fun!