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Tuesday, April 17, 2012
Predictions and Observations
Okay I am back! This season is starting to get really fun and I cannot resist capturing the rest of it here and there.
I hadn't planned on blogging this season so the first couple of episodes I watched but didn't pay too much attention. It seemed to be the "Colton" season in the beginning and my initial thinking was that S24 would be a "recap" of Survivor Samoa which was not really a favorite season of mine. However, in the past few episodes my thinking changed completely about S24 and I am loving the predictability yet unpredictability feel to it. I also think dynamics wise this season has a really great cast! They all have personality and that makes for fun watching.
Today on Twitter I was asked for my thoughts on who was going to go next and I stated my thoughts via Tweets. Afterwards I thought to myself, you know what? I am gonna write a blog about this. You can only "tweet" up to 140 characters. So to explain what I am seeing I definitely need more space than that. So with that being said. this is what I think will happen and I will even explore further what I think may happen the rest of the season. Now I could be wrong. In Fact I could be the first person "bamboozled" in the coming episodes and be so far off-base that I may need a Coast Guard rescue lol. But I am gonna stick with my gut that I think I am onto knowing how this season may turn out in the end. So hang on yall as below will be some speculation and strategical mapping of the game based on what I have seen so far.
Who I think will go next is:
Hands down I think it will be Leif! Here's why:
First off this season was setup to be a Men vs Women concept. The producers put them on the same beach at first and the chances for some cross tribal interactions were there and happened on occasion. The men however got a bit full of themselves at first and took out at the get-go some of their stronger players because they were not liked by Colton (and truthfully perhaps threats to Troyzan who probably allowed Colton's stronger personality to display and oust people who would be his bigger threats later on in the game)anyways their early decisions are starting to return and haunt them now. The Manono tribe was a mess early and are still a mess.
The Salani Tribe on the other hand did struggle at first due to the elements and survival parts of the game. Which affected their performances at challenges. But these initial struggles bonded the girls together and they were able to rise above those. Which led to their getting their stuff together and the twist definitely aided the stronger members of Salani. So that they were able to see firsthand the game of their male competition.
Which led to merge and the taking care of business that happened afterwards. The girls were already a tight unit so their already developed bond and their coming together is really a no-brainer. You play alongside who you feel you can trust to an extent so who else can you really trust than someone you bonded with right off the bat? The isolation of both sexes imo has played a factor as the girls have their thing going and the only one who I think male wise that will end up playing with the girls will be Tarzan. The other two it will come down to this.
Leif, though not a huge threat specifically, made a decision at this past Tribal which will target him at the coming Tribal. Namely, he voted against Kim's side and chose loyalty to Jay. Plus at the last Immunity he almost won it. Which shows that if the challenge is not too tough physically, he may can step up to win it especially if he feels he needs the win. Which leads us now to Troyzan.
I am seeing a LOT of the qualities of former contestant Ozzy Lusth in Troy. The arrogance. The competitor. The only difference is Troy has more of a social game than Ozzy and is actually Kim's counter-part on the men's side. My comparison though with Ozzy is because Troy is a viable competitor in a physical sense. I am now banking on Troy going on an Immunity Run and frustrating any attempt to be voted off. Which if I am right, would make Leif the next to go. Leif has already voted in essence "against" Kim and is not on her side of the game. Which is how Kim will look at it.
Future Of the Game:
After Leif, I believe that if Troyzan continues to win and stay in the game, that the only steps Kim can take now will be to "eat" her own. The next steps will be based on the pecking order in her alliance.
The next one will be most likely Christina:
Christina is so lovely and is definitely a fighter & under-dog. But game wise Christina is on the bottom rung of the Salani pecking order. She also has been playing low under the radar and has no real alliances that I can visibly see. Christina revealed her strengths on a previous challenge so she has the capability to win a challenge. She also is smarter than what people give her credit for which I think Kim knows and that would make her a possible threat. Social wise I do see Christina as a person people like and outside of Alicia, she hasn't angered anyone. This is, again IF Troyzan wins an immunity.
If Troyzan wins immunity yet again, the next person I feel will go will be Alicia:
Alicia is a fun character on Survivor to watch. She is strong personality wise, outspoken and she has shown herself to be very observant. In Tribals she has pointed out previously that people need to be careful to Christine as she was playing both sides. She also pointed out at the last Tribal that she noticed Troyzan's shorts had extra pockets so one of those pockets may hold an idol. Christina is also on the low pecking order list but she is one I think could make waves and I think Kim is aware that she could make waves. In playing a flawless game you want to get the unknown variables out before deciding who will be at the end with you.
Again if Troyzan were to continue to win immunity the next person who could possibly go will be Katt imo.
Kat is in the rung of the girls pow-wow but is outer peripheral. She also has not made any power moves to date but socially she gets along well with others and has shown herself to have strength when needed as a competitor. She will make it deep based on those strengths but she is not a direct ally to Kim and will be the first to go of the pow wow structure the Salani girls have.
Now it's possible Troyzan will lose at some point in this time period and were he to do so this is the time period I am thinking he will exit. Again this is all based on a theory and a hunch. I could be wrong.
Which I feel that the next to leave will be Tarzan. As I feel Tarzan has been allowed to go this far because he is an extra vote and I think Kim may have also kept him around in case she needed to change things up and go with a "goat" option (someone she can beat)
I feel it will come down to an all female Finals. But I believe Kim will win and that Chelsea will make Runner up as Chelsea has played a solid social game.
Kim has played a flawless game so far and she has played it so calm, cool and collected. She doesn't allow herself to react but instead is careful and methodical in all her approaches. I believe she will continue doing so. Kim is very subtle also in how she approaches Tribals and nothing she seems to reveal will rebound on her. She has a way to get people to do what she wants and people (except for Troyzan) are comfortable with Kim. A game like she is playing is really a unique style and very very few can play like she does. I am going to go out on a limb and say she will win this season. If so I will love it as the girl is amazing!!!
Far as Chelsea and Sabrina go, they are also very strong women and likable. They are smart as well and capable. Of the two I think Chelsea has had a more stronger social game but I love all three girls equally and have enjoyed watching them in action the season to date.
The above entry is """""""""""""NOT SPOILERS""""""""""""""" but are how I personally am mapping the game based on what I am seeing and have seen. If I am wrong and am bamboozled lol that will be cool however it will be amazing to see how the game does develop in the coming weeks. I am definitely looking forward to it!!